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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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