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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.