🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Made $436,000 from Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. One account, which became a member last month and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, made more than $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. However the odds had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the first hours of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," stated an industry expert. A handful of other platform users also earned significant sums from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting space. A company executive for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."