Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
